Prediction markets pushed deeper into private finance this week, even as regulators and lawmakers continued tightening scrutiny around the sector’s rapid expansion.
Prediction markets pushed deeper into private finance this week, even as regulators and lawmakers continued tightening scrutiny around the sector’s rapid expansion.
Polymarket launched markets tied to private-company milestones, giving users a way to trade on IPO timing, valuations, and secondary market activity for companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe and Kraken.
At the same time, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it would seek public input before clearing event contract ETFs for launch, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Justice Department sued Minnesota over what they called the first outright state ban on prediction markets.
Polymarket Opens Private-Market Predictions
Polymarket launched private-company event contracts this week. Source: CoinMarketCap
Polymarket moved into private-company markets this week through a new partnership with Nasdaq Private Market.
The new contracts let users trade on milestones tied to privately held companies, including valuation targets, IPO timing, and secondary share activity. Early markets include contracts tied to whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and Kraken reach specific valuation thresholds by certain dates.
Polymarket and Nasdaq Private Market framed the product as a way to create broader access and real-time price discovery in a market that has historically been limited to venture firms, institutions, and accredited investors.
The offering turns private-market developments into yes-or-no event contracts tied to specific outcomes. It does not give users equity ownership in private companies. Nasdaq Private Market will provide the data used to resolve the contracts.
SEC Pauses Event ETF Push
The SEC is taking more time to review the first proposed prediction ETFs. Source: CoinMarketCap
The SEC is taking more time to review the next step in prediction markets’ Wall Street expansion.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced Wednesday that the agency will seek public input on how it should respond to prediction market ETFs and other novel products.
“Novel products raise novel questions,” Atkins said, adding that the agency wants to consider the implications in a transparent way.
The proposed funds are designed to give investors exposure to event contracts through an ETF wrapper. Previous filings from issuers including Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares float products tied to elections, recessions, tech layoffs, oil prices, and other real-world outcomes.
Polymarket also filed with the CFTC on Wednesday to list parlay-style sports event contracts in the U.S. The filing said Polymarket intended to list the products no earlier than May 21.
State Fight Escalates
Minnesota passed a law effectively banning prediction markets. Source: Minnesota
The CFTC and Justice Department sued Minnesota this week over a new law banning prediction markets in the state.
The lawsuit was filed less than 24 hours after Governor Tim Walz signed the measure, which the CFTC described as the first outright state ban on prediction markets in the U.S. The law is set to take effect Aug. 1.
The complaint argues that Minnesota is trying to regulate derivatives markets that fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.
The case adds to the CFTC’s growing legal campaign against states seeking to restrict event contract platforms. The agency has also sued states such as Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois and New York.
Prediction markets also faced criticism in a Senate Commerce Committee hearing this week. Lawmakers questioned whether sports-related event contracts could encourage cheating by athletes, expose minors to gambling-like products, and undermine state and tribal gaming systems.
By the Numbers
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026?
- $150,000 or above: 8.5%
- $75,000 to $79,999: 8.2%
- $85,000 to $89,999: 6.4%
- $70,000 to $74,999: 6.2%
Source: CoinMarketCap
Ethereum price at the end of 2026?
- $2750 to $2,999: 7.8%
- $2,250 to $2499: 7.7%
- $2,000 to $2,249: 6.8%
- $2,500 to $2,749: 6.7%
Source: CoinMarketCap
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