K33 says Bitcoin’s $60,000 February low likely marked the cycle bottom despite recent weakness near $82,000.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin (BTC) fell roughly 6% after retesting its 200-day moving average (MA) near $82,000 earlier in May. The asset had first broken below that indicator in November 2025. Research and brokerage firm K33 said in a May 20 report that it still considers February's low of approximately $60,000 to be this cycle's maximum drawdown.
K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde acknowledged that the rejection reignited debate over whether a new leg lower is ahead. He noted that some analysts drew comparisons to rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022 that each preceded fresh cycle lows. Lunde argued the current setup is structurally different from those episodes.
189 Days Between Breakdown and Retest
BTC spent 189 days between the November 200-day MA breakdown and the May retest. That period compares to 96, 132, and 85 days in the equivalent windows for the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles, respectively. BTC is also more than 20% below its level at the time of the November breakdown, while the 2014 and 2022 cycles each showed positive returns over that same measurement window, and 2018 showed a shallower drawdown of around 8%. The 200-day moving average has been trending lower in 2026, while it trended higher during those prior cycles.
"Past rallies recovered quickly, rebuilding risk appetite and leverage and setting up the unwind that fueled the next leg lower," Lunde wrote. "The current slow grind has not." K33's derivatives framework showed sentiment tracking more closely to strong market periods such as March and April 2025 than to historical bear market rallies. Lunde described current positioning as reflecting "uniquely pessimistic sentiment."
Institutions Cut BTC Exposure in Q1
Institutional flow data adds further context. Following the latest round of 13F filings, Q1 2026 data shows institutional participants reduced their BTC exposure by 26,733 BTC, while retail participants added 19,395 BTC. Lunde attributed most of the institutional reduction to delta-neutral firms such as Millennium and Jane Street, citing compressing crypto yields, elevated volatility, and opportunities in commodity markets following geopolitical escalations.
Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded their ninth-largest five-day outflow since US spot ETFs launched 600 trading days ago. That reading places the period in the bottom 1.5% of all flow days, per K33. The firm found that the probability of a bottom 5% flow day rises to 10.2% in weeks where BTC crosses its average ETF cost basis. The likelihood climbs to 16.1% for bottom 10% flow days when the price trades within 5% of that level.
Lunde said heavy outflow days are far more common when BTC trades near its cost basis, attributing the pattern to investors seeking to avoid or limit losses after a deep drawdown. K33 maintained its base case that the less aggressive bull run of 2025 set conditions for a more moderate bear phase in 2026, with the $60,000 February low as the cycle floor.
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