Polymarket trading volume fell 8.9% in April while rival Kalshi posted strong growth amid rising competition.
Prediction Market News
Trading volume on Polymarket, including its US app, fell to just over $10.2 billion in April, down from more than $11.2 billion in March, according to Dune Analytics. The 8.9% month-over-month drop marked the platform's first decline since August 2025.
Rival Kalshi recorded the opposite trend over the same period. The competing predictionmarket platform grew its April volume by roughly 13%, reaching approximately $14.8 billion, Dune data shows. Total sector volume across prediction markets rose about 12.4% in April, climbing to approximately $29.8 billion from $26.5 billion in March.
US Re-Entry Faces Regulatory Headwinds
Polymarket exited the US market in 2022 as part of a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which barred the platform from allowing US residents on its global exchange. The company launched a dedicated US app in December 2025, though it operates separately from the global platform and does not share its liquidity pool.
Congressional scrutiny of prediction markets has grown since the sector expanded rapidly during the 2024 elections. On March 13, 2026, Senator Elizabeth Warren and more than 40 Congressional representatives sent a formal letter to the CFTC demanding that government insiders be banned from trading on predictionmarkets platforms while holding public office. "The CFTC maintains that event contracts are a type of swap subject to its jurisdiction, and, therefore, it should ensure that federal employees understand existing restrictions on prediction market insider trading," the lawmakers wrote.
Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed lawsuits in April against Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms, alleging violations of state sports betting laws. The legal filings added to the existing regulatory pressure the sector faces over insider trading concerns tied to markets covering sensitive topics such as war and energy prices.
New Entrants Add Competitive Pressure
New platforms are also entering the space. Prophet, an AI-native prediction market, launched its first live trading tranche on May 6, using an artificial intelligence model as the direct counterparty backed by real capital. Financial technology firm MoonPay introduced an AI-powered trading strategy tool for prediction markets on May 13.
The combination of Polymarket's volume decline, rising legal risks, and new market entrants signals a shifting competitive landscape. How quickly the platform completes its US reintegration may shape its ability to hold market share as the sector continues to draw new participants.
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