CMC Asset Watch: Scarcity Took Over the Tape
This week was about supply.
April CPI and PPI pushed the market back into a stagflation frame. The 10-year yield broke to 4.48% (highest since July 2025), the dollar strengthened, and rate-cut hopes faded. Trump says Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support' which brought the oil war premium back for the market. The uplift of commodities and memory/storage stocks performances became the cleanest expressions of scarcity.
The strongest moves came from assets tied to real-world bottlenecks: wheat, silver, oil, copper, and data storage. Windbond Electronics and Nanya Technology surged more than 24%, wheat gained 12%, and silver outperformed gold by almost 10%. Long-duration software and leveraged crypto proxies were compressed by higher yields.
Bitcoin failed to hold the $82K breakout. Memory/storage rallied, DDR4 specialists led.
Below is the CMC’s weekly take on macro, commodities, memory/storage, AI equities, crypto, and crypto equity proxies, with a focus on what moved, why, and what matters for the later part of May.
Core Crypto: The 200-day Rejection Matters
Crypto failed to continue the rally this week. BTC tried to clear the $82K area multiple times, topped at $82,139 on May 10, then slipped back below $80K by May 13. Net 7-day moves roughly flat.
Weekly moves (May 8 → May 14):
> BNB: +3.37% ($670.87)
> XRP: +1.06% ($1.43)
> BTC: −0.44% ($79,835)
> SOL: −1.04% ($90.99)
> ETH: −1.72% ($2,267)
TA paints a clear picture here. BTC has been printing higher lows since the April bottom, but the 200-day EMA / SMA zone around $82K remains overhead resistance. Until BTC closes above that level, relief rallies remain fragile.
Flows seem to be a bigger concern. ETF demand used to be the support stack, but the flow turned negative this week after five weeks of consecutive inflows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $630M single-day outflow on May 13, the largest since February.
Despite Saylor’s announcement of potential sell, Strategystill acquired 535 BTC last week for roughly $43.0M @$80,340. Comforting the market as it is, this was not enough to offset the broader ETF outflow.
Crypto Equity Proxies
Weekly moves:
> RIOT: +3.49% ($24.92)
> COIN: +0.32% ($201.80)
> MARA: −1.47% ($12.75)
> MSTR: −5.10% ($178.03)
> CLSK: −6.34% ($13.30)
TradFi: Stagflation Risk?
With the US CPI, PPI data release, this is a major Macro week. SPX gained +0.61%, but yields, dollar, volatility, and commodities all moved in the direction of tighter financial conditions and renewed inflation pressure.
Weekly moves
> SPX: +0.61%
> US10Y: +2.68% to 4.481%
> DXY: +0.66%
> VIX: +3.43%
The trigger was a two-part inflation shock. CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), then PPI followed with the sharpest monthly increase since 2022. The bond market reprice quickly: 10Y yield reached its highest level since July 2025, 30Y yield moved above 5% astraders started pricing in a potential December rate hike.
Commodities: Supply Shocks Beat Hedges
Commodities basket trended upwards this week: wheat, silver, oil, and copper all rallied but for different reasons, while gold stayed flat.
Weekly moves
> Wheat: +11.93% ($680/bu)
> Silver: +9.37% ($87.90)
> WTI: +6.09% ($101.23)
> Copper: +5.46% ($6.59)
> Platinum: +5.08% ($2,151)
> Corn: +4.93% ($478.75)
> NatGas: +4.64% ($2.88)
> Brent: +4.64% ($106.06)
> Gold: −0.09% ($4,714)
Wheat pumped due to supply shock. The May 12 WASDE report put the new-crop wheat production forecast for 2026 at the lowest level since 1972 due to drought concerns.
Oil got a reprice on the Iran risk premium. The market started the week still digesting May 6 de-escalation hopes, but by May 11–12 the ceasefire looked fragile again. Wall Street quickly moved on from TACO trade to NACHO trade (Not A Chance Hormuz Opening). Brent and WTI moved higher as traders stopped treating Hormuz reopening as the base case, bringing back part of the war premium that had been taken out the prior week.
Memory & Storage: Taiwan DDR4 Ran +24% in a Week
Memory/storage remained this week’s strongest alpha signal. Taiwan DDR4 names lead the market, while several large storage and memory winners experienced pullback after a hot CPI print.
Weekly moves:
> Winbond (2344.TW): +24.78%
> Nanya (2408.TW): +24.01%
> SK Hynix (000660.KS): +14.06%
> Kioxia (285A.T): +8.24%
> Samsung (005930.KS): +7.62%
> Micron (MU): +7.61%
> Seagate (STX): +4.43%
> Western Digital (WDC): +2.94%
> SanDisk (SNDK): −7.37%
The key move was in Windbond Electronics and Nanya Technology. On Monday, May 11, Winbond rose +10.13% and Nanya rose +10.17% after April revenue and earnings signals confirmed DDR4 pricing strength. Follow that pump, on May 14, Thursday, May 14, with Winbond up +9.82% and Nanya up +6.22% as the memory ETF captured large inflows and sector momentum fuelled the trade.
The pullback in SNDK, MU, and WDC this week was such a contrast. They used to be some of the strongest winners weeks ago, then the hot CPI and higher yields triggered profit-taking behavior among investors. SanDisk was hit the hardest. MU and WDC held up better, but the midweek weakness seems to suggest a positioning reset rather than a cycle break.
AI Equities
Weekly moves:
> CRWD: +6.59% ($562.57)
> NVDA: +4.94% ($225.83)
> GOOGL: +0.45% ($402.62)
> AMZN: −0.94% ($270.13)
> NET: −1.79% ($192.62)
> PLTR: −5.62% ($130.05)
> IBM: −6.58% ($214.64)
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