The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee but still faces major hurdles before a full Senate vote.
Crypto News
The US Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 on May 15 to advance the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to create a federal regulatory framework for the crypto industry. Two Democratic senators, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, voted alongside all 13 Republican members to send the bill forward. Nine Democrats voted against it.
Analysts cautioned that the committee vote does not resolve the bill's most significant obstacle. Passing the full Senate requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to support the measure.
Analyst Estimates and Procedural Steps
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg raised his probability estimate of the bill passing to 40% from one-in-three following the May 15 vote. He said the markup showed some Democratic openness to finding a path forward, but described the remaining hurdles as substantive. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer noted that the Banking Committee's version must first be merged with a parallel market structure bill that the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced in January 2026 before any floor vote can take place.
Asset manager Grayscale said in a report published May 16 that it views the bill's chances favorably. It pointed to the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulatory framework passed in July 2025 with 66 Senate votes, including 18 Democrats, as a comparable precedent. Grayscale said that at least seven Democrats crossing over is achievable based on that prior vote count.
Venture capital firm a16z crypto said in an X post on May 16 that passage would be "a boon for domestic innovation." The firm drew a parallel to the GENIUS Act, arguing that the stablecoin law drove adoption that benefited both the US economy and the long-term strength of the dollar. A16z added that when US legal frameworks balance innovation with consumer protection, the effects extend to global markets.
Sen. Gallego said during the markup that he would vote against the bill on the Senate floor if an ethics provision is not included. The provision would restrict the president, vice president, and their families from engaging in certain crypto-related financial transactions. TD Cowen said it does not expect Republicans to accept that amendment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
GSR Chief Legal and Strategy Officer Joshua Riezman said earlier in the week that the odds of the bill reaching the president's desk before the end of the current session were below 50%. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal offered a more optimistic view, saying he believes the bill will pass this summer. SharpLink Gaming CEO Joseph Chalom said the legislation is being watched internationally and is seen as a signal to other jurisdictions weighing their own regulatory frameworks.
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