TD Cowen raised Strategy’s MSTR price target to $400 after stronger-than-expected Bitcoin accumulation.
Bitcoin News
TD Cowen raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400 per share from $395 on May 19. The firm maintained a Buy rating on the stock and cited faster-than-expected Bitcoin accumulation as the primary reason for the revision.
The update, authored by analyst Lance Vitanza and associate Jonnathan Navarrete, followed treasury activity since the company's last earnings call that surpassed TD Cowen's earlier projections. Preferred equity issuance through Strategy's Stretch (STRC) product has dominated its capital raises in Q2 2026, with approximately $1.95 billion raised against minimal common equity issuance.
TD Cowen said substantially all of those proceeds were deployed directly into Bitcoin (BTC) purchases. Strategy had already acquired more BTC midway through Q2 than the firm had modeled for the full quarter. TD Cowen now forecasts roughly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone.
Balance Sheet Action Boosts Target
As a result of those revisions, TD Cowen lifted its full-year BTC Yield estimate to 19.8% from 18.2%. Its full-year BTC Dollar Gain estimate increased to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion. Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares reached 2.21x as of May 17, up from 1.95x at the end of 2025.
Between May 11 and May 17, Strategy acquired 24,869 BTC for approximately $2.01 billion. That was the company's largest single-week purchase in 2026, outside of a 34,164 BTC buy in April. The company now holds 843,738 BTC, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin's total supply of 21 million coins. "Strategy's treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster-than-anticipated Bitcoin accumulation and accretive balance sheet actions driving higher BTC per share and improved financial flexibility," the TD Cowen analysts wrote.
The second factor behind the target increase was Strategy's retirement of approximately $1.5 billion in out-of-the-money convertible notes at roughly an 8% discount to face value. TD Cowen said the transaction reduces fully diluted share exposure, improves credit quality, and lowers future refinancing risk. "We view this as an important signal of financial flexibility," the analysts wrote.
MSTR shares were trading near $164.79 on May 19, approximately 64% below the stock's 52-week high of $457.22. TD Cowen's $400 target implies an upside of more than 139% from that level. The firm's methodology applies a 3x multiple to its 2026 BTC Dollar Gain estimate of $15.16 billion, adds projected year-end Bitcoin holdings of $132.9 billion, and subtracts $3.5 billion in debt and $15.5 billion in preferred equity obligations.
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